Previous Article
News
Exploring the gap between the fear of terrorist recidivism and the evidence
An article written for the journal CTC Sentinel by Thomas Renard, working for the Egmont Institute in Belgium
Two recent attacks in London, in November 2019 and February 2020, by two convicted terrorists released from prison resulted in a surge of concern about terrorist recidivism. However, statistics and the academic literature suggest that, on the contrary, terrorists are unlikely to relapse into violent extremism. A review of the judiciary files of 557 jihadi terrorist convicts in Belgium, spanning the three decades from 1990, confirms that less than five percent reengaged in terrorist activities. These findings bear significant implications for counterterrorism policies broadly and for sentencing and post-penitentiary measures more specifically.
Fear of terrorist recidivism
The fear that terrorist offenders could go back to their ‘old ways’ after their release from prison is widely shared among security services and the public. Two recent attacks have just added to this fear. On November 29, 2019, Usman Khan stabbed two people to death near London Bridge, around a year after his release from prison. He had been sentenced in 2012 for planning terrorist activities. On February 2, 2020, Sudesh Amman was shot dead by police shortly after he started stabbing passersby in Streatham, South London, only 10 days after his release from prison. He had been convicted in November 2018 to 40 months in jail for possession and dissemination of terrorist material, in connection with the Islamic State.
Security concerns
For more than two years, European security services have been raising concerns about the planned release of hundreds of jihadis from prison. This is a “worrying threat that we are taking very seriously,” a European official told Agence France-Presse in early 2018. In its annual report published in 2018, the Belgian intelligence service, VSSE, warned of a potential new wave of terrorism resulting from a “recidivism surge” among released extremists. The report observed that “many” terrorists convicted in Belgium between 2001-2011 had reoffended, while highlighting a “current and persistent trend of recidivism” among terrorist offenders. Meanwhile, European prison and probation officers have discussed this issue on several occasions, in the context of the E.U.-wide Radicalisation Awareness Network (RAN).
Read the complete article here.
Related News
Keep up to date with the latest developments, stories, and updates on probation from across Europe and beyond. Find relevant news and insights shaping the field today.
New
Mental Health
CEP publishes European Mental Health Training Curriculum for Probation Staff and launches Pilot Implementation Initiative
19/05/2026
In this article, you can explore the newly published European Mental Health Training Curriculum for Probation Officers, learn about the call for a national pilot implementation, and find details about the upcoming webinar on 21 May presenting the curriculum modules.
New
Mental Health
European Mental Health Week: strengthening probation practice through mental health
13/05/2026
This week, during Mental Health Awareness Week, the Confederation of European Probation is highlighting the importance of mental health in probation practice across Europe.
New
Probation in Europe, Research
Free Research Resource: KrimDok
12/05/2026
Looking for reliable criminological literature? KrimDok is a free online database developed by the University of Tübingen and supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG).
The database contains nearly 400,000 references to books, journal articles, reports, and other publications covering criminology and related fields such as criminal justice, psychology, sociology, education, and law. It draws on a specialist criminology library established in 1969, with a collection of around 150,000 titles, and includes indexed articles from more than 200 academic journals.
Reading corner
Violent Extremism
New newsletter available: EU Knowledge Hub on Prevention of Radicalisation
11/05/2026
The latest edition of the EU Knowledge Hub newsletter brings together policy, research, and practice to address evolving radicalisation threats across Europe.
New
Gender-based violence
New European Master’s Programme on Perpetrator Intervention Launched
07/05/2026
The European Network for the Work with Perpetrators of Domestic Violence (WWP EN), in collaboration with Blanquerna – Universitat Ramon Llull (Barcelona), has launched a pioneering new programme:
Lifelong Learning Master’s Degree in Intervention Strategies with Perpetrators of Gender-Based Violence: Social, Clinical, and Legal Perspectives
This initiative represents the first international lifelong learning Master’s programme specifically focused on perpetrator intervention, offering a unique opportunity for professionals working to address and prevent gender-based violence across Europe and beyond.
New
Education and Training
CEP Expert Network on Education and Training Publishes Technical Recommendations on Mentoring in Probation Training
06/05/2026
The Confederation of European Probation (CEP) is pleased to present the Technical Recommendations on Mentoring in the Context of Probation Training, developed through the work of the CEP Expert Network on Education and Training.
This publication is the result of extensive collaborative exchange among 30 experts from 15 European jurisdictions, who convened in March 2025 in Agen, France, at the École Nationale d’Administration Pénitentiaire (ENAP). Bringing together probation directors, middle managers, practitioners, and representatives from training institutions, the network worked collectively to identify shared challenges, exchange practices, and formulate practical recommendations to strengthen mentoring within probation services across Europe.
Subscribe to our bi-monthly email newsletter!
- Keep up to date with important probation developments and insights.