Previous Article
News
”A Risky Business” by Amy Thornton
Probation officer risk assessments are used to make key criminal justice decisions and to allocate resources. To ensure validity and reliability, they must be based on factors proven within empirical research to link to recidivism and undertaken with a transparent approach. This study aims to explore whether risk assessment judgements vary between groups of practitioners and what factors influence probation decisions about risk. The research questions were explored by discussing constructed vignettes in focus groups across six locations. The study adds to the conceptual understanding of risk in probation practice. The findings have led to recommendations for further research and suggestions for probation policy and training.
Exploring variation in probation risk assessments and factors influencing clinical assessments. By Amy Thornton, Deputy Head of Probation – Black Country, Dudley, UK.
FINDINGS
Probation Officer risk assessment varies by:
- How officers interpret risk factors.
- Middle manager influence and local practice.
- Faith in tools and time to use them.
- Perception of service user trust and honesty.
- Familiarity with service user and offence.
- Fear of getting it wrong.
CONCLUSION
This research illustrates the individuality and subjectivity of assessing risk and that this can result in variations. The study found that probation officer risk assessments vary in both method and outcome. How, where and who undertakes an assessment can impact on the outcome by considering or interpreting factors differently. This variation provides an unequal provision of service, or justice by geography. As a member of the public, a politician or service user, there may be an expectation of fairness and legitimacy in risk assessment practice. This cannot be realised if two practitioners, in two different locations make different assessments given the same information. Probation officers do not consider all risk factors defined in empirical evidence and have a mistrust of some tools. The implications of this, is increased subjectivity, inconsistency, reduced accuracy and diminished legitimacy. What became apparent during this study was an overarching, and conscious, practice of defensive decision making by probation officers. The fear of getting it wrong was developing a risk averse culture. Probation officers spoke passionately, mostly knowledgably, sometimes not so knowledgably, and professionally about how to assess risk and, worryingly, how they feel under impossible pressure to predict the future. It is hoped that this study will encourage additional research, training and support to ensure probation officers make accurate, legitimate and defensible assessments.
Read the thesis poster here
Related News
Keep up to date with the latest developments, stories, and updates on probation from across Europe and beyond. Find relevant news and insights shaping the field today.
New
Education and Training
CEP launches an interactive European map of probation education and training institution contacts
22/01/2026
The CEP is pleased to inform its members that a new dedicated section has been developed on the CEP website featuring an interactive map of Europe.
New
CEP Events
CEP activity calendar 2026
20/01/2026
As we begin the new year, we would like to thank all CEP members, partners, and participants for your continued engagement and valuable contributions. Your involvement plays an essential role in shaping CEP’s work and activities.
We are pleased to share the CEP calendar for 2026, which provides an overview of the events planned for the year ahead. We look forward to continuing our collaboration and welcoming you to upcoming CEP activities throughout the year.
Thank you for being part of the CEP community.
New
CEP members, Gender-based violence
Interventions Alliance’s Eden House Recognized as Outstanding
15/01/2026
CEP is delighted to share that Eden House, an Interventions Alliance residential service for women with high-risk or complex needs on probation, has been rated “Outstanding” overall by HM Inspectorate of Probation. In 2022, Eden House was honored with the CEP Public Protection Award. Our sincere congratulations to the team for this remarkable achievement.
New
Education and Training
The Judicial Training Dashboard
14/01/2026
The European Training Platform (ETP) is a search tool for justice professionals. You can find self-learning materials on a great variety of EU law practice areas and related topics, as well as links to training providers’ homepages and course catalogues.
New
Technology
Communication on DigitalJustice@2030
13/01/2026
The EU’s competitiveness will increasingly depend on the digitalisation of all sectors, which will drive investment. Digitalisation and the deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) will be essential to the ability of public authorities to deliver high-quality public services, notably also in the field of justice. Europe’s Digital Decade is underway with the ambition that by 2030 the EU has all key public services available online. The ultimate aim will be to increase the efficiency of public services by making them digital by default, stimulating productivity.
New
Alternatives to pre-trial detention, CEP Events
Webinar on Alternatives to Detention – CEP Webinar Series 2026
13/01/2026
CEP is pleased to invite you to the first webinar in the CEP Webinar Series 2026, taking place on Thursday, 22 January 2026, at 14:00 CET. This webinar will introduce a unique programme developed by the Meuse Probation Service, which was awarded the CEP Award 2025 in the category of Rehabilitation and Social Inclusion (The Sue Hall Award).
Subscribe to our bi-monthly email newsletter!
- Keep up to date with important probation developments and insights.